IGC projects feed grain increase
More grains will be used in animal feeds in the 2008/2009 harvest year with production climbing to a record 1,769 million metric tons following a 12% rise in wheat output, says the International Grains Council (IGC).
Because the overall rise in production would exceed the forecast increase in total use, world carry-over stocks in 2008/2009 are projected to recover 24 million metric tons to a level of 307 million metric tons. Approximately 230 million metric tons of grains will be traded worldwide in 2008/2009, representing a decrease of 8 million metric tons. While there will be a marked upturn in wheat trading, this is predicted to be offset by sharp falls in trade in maize and sorghum, says the IGC.
Ethanol producers are forecast to increase their grain consumption to a total of 126 million metric tons, 29 million metric tons more than in 2007/2008. The total for conversion to biofuel is forecast to include 117 million metric tons of maize (corn).
A decline in planting and reduced yields will likely lead to a smaller wheat crop in 2009/2010, despite generally favorable northern hemisphere conditions, says the IGC, but with no significant fall in stocks.
Agromek reports lower attendance
Agromek, the international exhibition of agricultural machinery in Herning, Denmark, was held during the last week of November 2008 and attained a total attendance of 51,601 visitors, including 7,660 foreign guests from 66 countries.
This number is 13,396 lower than Agromek in January 2008.
“Until this year, the exhibition has always been held in January. It is thus only 10 months since we last held Agromek. It is difficult to draw conclusions as to whether this is the reason for the lower attendance or if it is the current situation in the agricultural sector, or perhaps the financial crisis,” states the Chairman of Agromek, Managing Director Peter Hansen, Cormall Agro Holding A/S.
U.S. FDA reverses order on animal antibiotics
Extra-label drug use of cephalosporin now permitted.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has revoked a prior order that would have prohibited the “extralabel” use of cephalosporin antimicrobial drugs in food-producing animals. The original order would have taken effect on November 30. The FDA said it revoked the order so that it could “fully consider the many substantive comments it received on the order of prohibition.”
Extralabel drug use refers to the use of a veterinary drug in a manner for which it was not approved, similar to off-label drug use in human medications. Extralabel drug use occurs when a drug only approved for human use is used in animals, when a drug approved for one species of animal is used in another species or when a drug is used to treat a condition for which it was not approved. Only veterinarians are allowed to prescribe drugs extralabel.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the FDA’s submission this year to ban extralabel uses of cephalosporin antibiotic drugs in “food-producing” animals such as cows, swine, and chickens met with industry criticism. Some agriculture groups and animal-drug makers argued that the drugs are necessary for infectious disease prevention in animals, said the Journal.
The FDA said that since it received many substantive comments on the order of prohibition, it was revoking its earlier regulation and would allow cephalosporin use in these animals. However, the agency added that if after considering the comments and other relevant information, it decides to issue another order of prohibition addressing the matter, it would provide for a public comment period prior to implementing the order.
Contraction in EU pig herd unprecedented
Pig census data published for 2008 for 15 European Union (EU) member states, representing 90% of the market, show that total pig numbers at the early-summer count were down nearly 6% compared with 2007, to 143.4 million head. Even more surprising is an 8% fall in the number of in-pig sows to 9.1 million, with the most significant breeding herd contraction in Spain, Poland and Germany.
The decline in pig numbers had little impact on total EU pig meat production in the first half of 2008, but from the third quarter, tighter supplies began to be reflected in higher pig prices. In the final quarter of the year, EU production could be down by as much as 5% compared with the same three months in 2007.
In a number of member states, where up until now production has been above year-earlier levels, a fall in availability is forecast. In Denmark, gross indigenous production (GIP) is forecast to be down 10% compared with output in the fourth quarter of 2007. In Germany and Spain, GIP is forecast to be down 2 and 4%, respectively. In Poland, 19% fewer pigs are forecast to be available for slaughter or live export than in the same quarter a year ago.
A particularly sharp fall in production is anticipated in the UK, Denmark, Poland, and other eastern European countries. In the EU as a whole, production could be down around 5% in the first half of 2009. Barring unforeseen circumstances, EU pig prices should continue to increase up until summer 2009.
Marked rise in EU pig meat exports
The European Union (EU) exported over 1 million metric tons of pig meat in the first six months of 2008, representing an increase of more than 40% compared with exports in the same period of 2007.
Exports of frozen pork to Russia doubled to 142,000 metric tons, aided by the availability of export refunds. More frozen pork was shipped to Japan and Hong Kong, and the Ukraine has emerged as an important destination. In contrast, less was exported to South Korea and the United States than last year. The rise in exports of pig offal this year is primarily the result of increased trade with Hong Kong, Russia, and China. At 167,000 metric tons, exports to Hong Kong were almost double the volume exported in January-June 2007.
Data available from Danske Slagterier shows that Danish exports of pig meat have risen by 15% in the first half of 2008, with shipments to both Japan and Russia up 10%. There was more than a 60% increase in exports to China, mostly offal (36,000 metric tons).
Germany has also exported more pig meat outside of the EU this year, with chilled and frozen pork exports to Russia doubled to 28,000 metric tons. Russia has also become a major destination for French pork exports, up from 3,000 to 23,000 metric tons. German exports of pig offal to Hong Kong have doubled to 66,000 metric tons.
